Any US military attack on Cuba would most likely take place this summer, according to a Chinese defence technology company closely tracking US military movements around the island.
The assessment by Jingan Technology, a civilian start-up founded in 2021 in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, said that if the US were to use force against Cuba, it would most likely take the form of a rapid “decapitation and paralysis” operation aimed at regime change, rather than a large-scale invasion.
The company uses artificial intelligence and data analytics to analyse national security and defence challenges. It based its assessment on the “rhythm” of US military deployments around Cuba – which it said intensified in recent months – and on political cycles.
“As the US-Iran gambit slides towards a defining conclusion, the US urgently needs to achieve a low-cost, high-yield symbolic strategic victory in its ‘geopolitical backyard’ of the western hemisphere to restore its global dominance and deterrence posture,” it said in an article published on its social media account on Thursday.
The timing of the US midterm elections in November was also cited as a potential driver, with the company suggesting that US President Donald Trump might seek a quick win to boost political support.
However, it also added that the potential summer window was constrained by high uncertainty in the US-Iran war, which could divert US military resources to the Middle East and ultimately determine whether any operation against Cuba was feasible.
Trump has threatened military action against Cuba since ousting Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro in January. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that a diplomatic settlement remains preferred.
In Washington on Thursday, Trump said he would “handle” Cuba as soon as his administration moved on from the conflict with Iran, which has dragged on for more than three months.
Jingan Technology said US military activities around Cuba had intensified in recent months, citing data from its own situational awareness platform “Jingqi”.
Since mid-April, US reconnaissance activity in the area, including P-8A and MQ-4C aircraft operating closer to the island, had increased, the company said.
It also said the US had deployed multiple naval assets in the region to exert military pressure. Among those vessels was the USS Nimitz carrier strike group, which arrived in Kingston, Jamaica, on Monday.
Overall, the company said, US preparations had reached a level of tactical feasibility, although clear indicators of imminent combat had not yet emerged.
It argued that due to the geographical proximity between the United States and Cuba, and its ability to operate from existing American bases, the US already had a rapid initial strike ability, making large-scale pre-war mobilisation patterns harder to detect compared with movements in other theatres such as Iran.
The company added that the likelihood of military action would be reduced if backchannel negotiations between the United States and Cuba led to a meaningful diplomatic breakthrough, although it assessed this outcome as unlikely.
If military action were to occur, it would likely be fast-paced, beginning with cyber and electronic warfare operations, followed by decapitation operation or pressure against the Cuban leadership.
The analysis is part of a broader trend of Chinese civilian firms monitoring overseas US military activity using open-source intelligence and data platforms in recent months, particularly in relation to the Iran conflict.
In May, the US State Department sanctioned three companies based in China for providing satellite imagery it said enabled Iran to strike US forces in the Middle East.