China is poised to leverage the humanoid and robotics market to consolidate its dominance over global manufacturing – a move that echoes its decade-long rise to the top of the electric vehicle (EV) sector, according to a new report.
“Looking ahead, humanoids and robots will be the next key driver of China’s export machinery over the coming 5 to 10 years,” analysts from Morgan Stanley said in a note. “Indeed, we see parallels between the development of the humanoids and robots industry and that of the EV industry a decade ago.”
The analysts, led by Chetan Ahya, the investment bank’s chief Asia economist, reiterated a previous projection that China’s global export market share would climb from 15 per cent now to 16.5 per cent by 2030, further expanding its lead in global manufacturing and exports.
In their note on Monday, they said evidence of China’s early dominance was already visible in production and deployment. Chinese manufacturers accounted for roughly 90 per cent of the 13,000 to 16,000 humanoid robots shipped globally last year, while rivals in the US and Japan remained largely at the prototype stage, the analysts noted.
Morgan Stanley further forecast that China’s annual humanoid robot sales would more than double to around 28,000 units this year, exceeding the output of any other economy.
The bullish projections come amid Beijing’s intensifying focus on advanced manufacturing and “future industries” – priorities underscored in China’s latest five-year plan covering 2026 to 2030. Humanoids and robots are at the forefront of this state-led push.
“China has a track record of spotting the next big growth areas early and planning ahead,” the analysts said, pointing to state-backed investment that enabled Chinese carmakers to scale up rapidly and produce affordable EVs just as global demand surged.
They added that the robotics industry had “followed a similar path”, with China accounting for 54 per cent of the world’s new industrial robot installations as of 2024, positioning its firms to “ride the automation wave”.
They said the boom was also supported by a comprehensive domestic supply chain, with the local content of Chinese-made robots rising from 30 per cent to more than 50 per cent over the past five years. Combined with large-scale production, this was said to have made Chinese robots, on average, at least 20 per cent cheaper than comparable foreign models.
Other drivers include heavy investment in innovation and a financial system aligned with strategic priorities, according to the report. However, the analysts also cautioned against “risks of excessive competition and its implications for pricing power” – a persistent challenge across many of China’s dominant sectors, including EVs.
A key distinction from previous strategic industries has been policymakers’ “anti-involution” push, which the bank described as “a sign that there is awareness of the challenges posed by excessive competition and excess capacity.”
Late last year, China’s top economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, flagged risks of excessive duplication in China’s rapidly growing humanoid robot sector, vowing to strengthen guidance for an industry that officials have identified as an important engine of future growth.