Japan has scrapped long-standing restrictions on arms exports in a major break with its post-war pacifist policy that is likely to derail any potential thaw in relations with China.
The plans, given final approval by the cabinet on Tuesday, could clear the way for sales of lethal equipment that had long been banned and prompted expressions of “serious concern” from Beijing.
Japan’s Three Principles on Transfer of Defence Equipment and Technology had previously limited exports to five non-combat categories: rescue, transport, warning, surveillance and minesweeping.
But the changes now allow Japan to sell lethal weapons to 17 countries with which it has signed equipment and technology transfer agreements, including the United States, Australia and Britain.
Other potential buyers include countries embroiled in long-standing territorial disputes with China, such as India, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.
Relations between Tokyo and Beijing have been largely frozen since November, when Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Japan may intervene militarily if Taiwan was attacked.
Beijing views Taiwan as part of China and has never renounced the use of force to reunite it with the mainland. Japan, in common with most countries, does not recognise the island as an independent state.
On Monday there was a hint of a thaw when it was reported that Yohei Kono, a former president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, was expected to lead a trade delegation to Beijing in late June – the first visit of its kind since Takaichi made her comments.
Citing sources, the report by Kyodo said allowing the visit may be a signal that Beijing was softening its stance on Japan and that it may serve as a channel for communications.
Kono served as speaker of Japan’s House of Representatives between 2003 and 2009 and chairs the Association for the Promotion of International Trade in Japan.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun responded to the relaxation on arms exports by expressing “serious concern” and warning of the need for “heightened vigilance to resolutely resist Japan’s reckless moves towards new-style militarism”.
Apart from the row over her comments about Taiwan, Beijing has also been wary of Takaichi’s efforts to boost Japan’s military profile since taking office six months ago.
Wang Guangtao, deputy director of the Centre for Japanese Studies at Fudan University, said conservative groups in Japan have been pushing for a bigger role for the country’s armed forces and the expansion of its defence industry.
“Domestically Japan has strong motivation to expand its weapons exports, which will also be a channel to increase Japan’s regional and global influence,” Wang said.
He added that Kono’s trip was unlikely to bring about a major thaw, saying: “I think the visit will be largely focused on working-level engagement, but it is hard to rely on a former politician to push for real breakthroughs.”
Yoichiro Sato, a foreign and security policy researcher at the Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University, said: “Japan is willing to play a greater role in building [the] security capacity of the Asia-Pacific countries, which contribute to Japan’s own security.”
He also said that the “commonly perceived threat from China” had created opportunities for cooperation between Japan and its Asia-Pacific partners.
The shift could also strengthen Japan’s industrial base while helping place Japan’s alliance with the United States on a more equal footing, according to Sato.
“Retaining an edge in defence-related technologies and domestic productions has remained a policy objective of the government.”
He said Tokyo was “not necessarily” seeking “full autonomy from the US, but for a greater equality in the bilateral alliance relationship”.
Japan’s post-war pacifist constitution had prohibited most arms sales abroad. But in 2023, former prime minister Fumio Kishida eased the rules to allow the export of non-combat weapons.
In principle, the latest changes still restrict the sale of lethal weapons to countries that are “engaged in conflict”, but exceptions can be granted in “special circumstances” when Japan’s national interest or US military operations in the Indo-Pacific are involved.
Wang said this could open up “grey areas” that expanded the scope for Japan to get involved in conflicts.
He added that the definition of being involved “in conflict” was ambiguous and “we don’t know if there would be scenarios in which Japan deems [a country] to be at war while the international community doesn’t”.
“This will increase instability in the region and violate Japan’s pacifist constitution,” Wang added.
Amid the growing anxiety over a more assertive China and the reliability of US security guarantees following Donald Trump’s return to power, Japan has been steadily shifting away from its pacifist policies imposed after World War II.
Tokyp has previously provided coastal radar systems to the Philippines, another US ally that has been involved in a series of maritime confrontations over its dispute with Beijing over the South China Sea.
On Saturday, it announced a US$6.5 billion deal to supply three Mogami-class stealth frigates to Australia.
“China may see Japan’s move [as] unwanted, as Japan’s assistance to Southeast Asian countries’ capacity building may expand from the civilian coastguard domain to the military domain,” Sato said.