An adviser to Iran’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei has warned of “a chain-reaction response” in more critical shipping lanes, including in the Malacca Strait in Southeast Asia, after Iran declared another full closure of the Hormuz Strait before a fragile ceasefire is due.
“The era of imposing security from across the oceans has come to an end. Today, not only has the security of Hormuz and Malacca been guaranteed under the shadow of our power and that of our strategic partners, but the security of Bab al-Mandab [Strait] is also in the hands of the Ansar Allah brothers,” Ali Akbar Velayati, the adviser on international affairs to the Supreme Leader of Iran, wrote on social media on Sunday. Yemen-based Ansar Allah is also known as the Houthis.
“Any mischief will have a chain-reaction response,” he said.
The comments were made shortly after Iran declared a full closure of the Hormuz Strait on Saturday night, only one day after Tehran said the strait was open for commercial vessels.
In a statement, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard navy said the Strait of Hormuz would be closed until the US blockade was lifted, warning that approaching the strait would be considered “cooperation with the enemy” and vessels doing so would be targeted.
The renewed tensions at the Strait of Hormuz have deepened fears of a new round of conflict after the fragile ceasefire ends on Wednesday. Pakistani mediators are working to arrange another direct negotiation between Iran and the US.
Hu Bo, director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, a Beijing-based think tank, said Velayati’s comments could be seen as an attempt to draw more attention to the Hormuz crisis.
But he said the geopolitical dynamics in Southeast Asia were different from those in Hormuz, and the Strait of Malacca was unlikely to face disruptions like those in the Strait of Hormuz.
A vital maritime chokepoint linking the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, the narrow Strait of Malacca runs between Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore and is one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes and a key route for energy shipments to East Asia. The three Southeast Asian countries jointly oversee its security and navigation.
“It’s unlikely that littoral states may take similar actions to Iran’s around Hormuz,” Hu said.
Unlike the Hormuz Strait, which is the only passage from the oil-rich Gulf to the Indian Ocean for maritime traffic, there are potential natural alternatives to the Strait of Malacca, Hu noted. That might include the Sunda, Lombok and Ombai-Wetar straits, which offer diversions around the Indonesian archipelago.
However, the ongoing crisis in the Hormuz Strait is expected to heighten global awareness about maritime chokepoint security, according to Hu.
“The Strait of Malacca and the Strait of Hormuz are not really comparable, but the Hormuz issue has made the world start thinking about the security of shipping routes again.”