Asia-Pacific economies are likely to suffer a slowdown in growth this year, as rising costs linked to the US-Israel war on Iran combine with lingering trade uncertainty to threaten global trade flows, according to forecasts by top international organisations.

The predictions come despite China showing resilience in the first quarter by posting better-than-expected growth of 5 per cent and finance minister Lan Foan last week stressing that the world’s second-largest economy would remain an engine for global growth.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected in its World Economic Outlook report on Tuesday that growth in emerging and developing Asia would reach 4.9 per cent this year, down from 5.5 per cent in 2025. It expects growth to ease in China as well.

“The global economy has, to date, withstood a series of shocks, yet another one – this time a military conflict engulfing the Middle East since the end of February – is testing this resilience,” the report said.

Days earlier, the Asian Development Bank also forecast economic growth in developing Asia and the Pacific to slow this year. It predicted the region would achieve 5.1 per cent growth in 2026, down from 5.4 per cent last year, with economies “weighed down by the conflict in the Middle East and continuing trade uncertainty”.

The lender forecast China’s economic growth at 4.6 per cent this year, down from 5 per cent in 2025.

The World Bank expects East Asia and Pacific regional economic growth to hit 4.2 per cent in 2026, down from 5 per cent last year, “as the energy shock due to the Middle East conflict compounds the adverse impact of elevated trade barriers, global policy uncertainty and domestic economic difficulties”.

It tipped China’s growth to reach 4.2 per cent this year.

The World Trade Organization (WTO), meanwhile, has warned that global trade and economic growth could slow this year due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, with regions dependent on energy imports likely to be hit hardest.

If crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices remain high throughout 2026, global growth will decline by 0.3 percentage points and global trade in merchandise will fall by 0.5 percentage points, according to a summary of the WTO’s Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report released in late March.

Asia-Pacific manufacturing economies rely on imported energy, raw materials and intermediate components for goods such as consumer electronics.

Countries in the region – which together account for 32 per cent of global trade – also continue to face risks of disruption from US tariffs, despite several nations agreeing trade deals with Washington and the US Supreme Court striking down the duties President Donald Trump imposed using emergency powers last year.

Some of those trade deals are set to expire this year, and Trump has threatened to find new ways of raising tariffs.

Meanwhile, countries face knock-on economic issues from the war on Iran, which has disrupted global shipping traffic and led to surging fuel prices and supply shortages in some areas.

Marine shippers expect a drop in business if the war lasts long enough to dent global consumer demand, according to Simon Heaney, senior manager for container research at maritime consultancy Drewry.

“Any escalation of military activity will weigh heavily on global trade and therefore on share performance of containers,” Heaney told an online briefing on Wednesday.