The Florida Panthers, back-to-back Stanley Cup champions, aren't here. The Buffalo Sabres, who last made the playoffs when "Fast Five" was in theaters, are here.
The Toronto Maple Leafs, who appeared in nine straight NHL postseasons, aren't here. The Utah Mammoth, who didn't exist three years ago, are here.
But that's why the Stanley Cup tournament is the greatest postseason in sports: the unpredictability. How a bad bounce or a hot goalie can turn a series around in an instant. Which, admittedly, makes the whole "predicting every series" thing a bit fraught, but hey, here we are.
Here is how the Stanley Cup playoffs will play out, from the opening round through the last game of the Stanley Cup Final. I apologize in advance for spoiling the next two months for you, as obviously all of this is going to happen exactly to script and none of these picks will be incorrect.
More: Full schedule
Mega-preview
Lapsed fan's guide
Stanley Cup odds
Flaws for each team
If there's one true question mark looming over the first-place Sabres entering the Stanley Cup playoffs -- a sentence 14 seasons in the making! -- it's the lack of postseason experience for most of their roster. As many preparatory yarns that Alex Tuch can spin about lengthy playoff runs with the Golden Knights, nothing prepares a player for how the game changes in the postseason.
I think the experience gap is less of a concern against the Bruins than some other teams in the Eastern Conference draw. Heck, Boston might ice a line of Fraser Minten, Marat Khusnutdinov and James Hagens that have a sum total of zero playoff appearances between them. The Sabres can let that home-ice advantage and youthful exuberance continue to power their playoff wagon, because I don't think the Bruins are good enough to knock the wheels off.
Sure, squint hard enough and this is a series. Jeremy Swayman was easily one of the top-five goalies in the league this season, with 28.8 goals saved above expected. David Pastrnak (100 points) and Morgan Geekie (39 goals) continued their offensive magic, and while Buffalo has the depth advantage here, Boston did seem to find something to work with in Pavel Zacha's line with Casey Mittelstadt and Viktor Arvidsson. A veteran defense corps led by Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov could slow down the Sabres' attack -- although they're just as liable to hand Buffalo a power play, too.
I don't think the Bruins defend well enough to pull an upset here: They're 26th in the NHL in expected goals against per 60 minutes since the Olympic break. For the season, their expected goals percentage was 46.7%, nestled in between the San Jose Sharks and Toronto Maple Leafs, which is not the neighborhood you want to be as a playoff team.
Bruins coach Marco Sturm said this week that "we are bigger, stronger, and we are more physical." Even if that were true -- and a glance at the rosters says it isn't -- the Sabres showed in their epic regular-season battles against the Lightning that they can take a punch, wipe their mouths and score the next goal. Despite their postseason pedigree, they're ready for this.
Montreal might have the best line in the NHL: Nick Suzuki centering Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky. The trio finished with a preposterous 69.9% goals-for percentage, thanks in part to Caufield's 51 goals and Suzuki's first 100-point campaign in his seven-year NHL career. (Slafkovský was no slouch, hitting 30 goals for the first time.) They were just as dynamic defensively, as Suzuki is poised to win the Selke Trophy for the first time in his career. (True to form for the award for best defensive forward, it'll come in his best offensive season.)
The key to this series is whether coach Marty St. Louis uses them, how he uses them and what the rest of the lineup does when they're not on the ice.
Will the Habs run Suzuki against the Lightning's top line with Nikita Kucherov, the NHL's leader in points per game (1.71) this season? One of the reasons why the Florida Panthers ran through the Lightning in consecutive postseasons was keeping Kucherov in check at 5-on-5, as he generated just seven assists at even strength in 10 total games. Can Suzuki's line limit him in the same way, or will Kucherov pop off without having Aleksander Barkov or Sam Bennett on the other side of the playoff ice for once?
Beyond the top line, the Lightning have depth at forward and the Canadiens, until proven otherwise, do not. Sure, one can expect Ivan Demidov -- the second-best rookie in the league this season -- to do more than he did last season, which was nothing. But the bottom six for Montreal don't match the quality of Tampa Bay's, and not just because they don't have playoff X factor Corey Perry.
Speaking of Perry: It would be shocking if coach Jon Cooper's game plan wasn't to physically maul players like Caufield and star defenseman Lane Hutson at every opportunity. The Lightning can be guilty of running around a little too much, sacrificing some of their identity as an offensive juggernaut (3.49 goals per game), but that's exactly what's necessary against the Habs.
The status of defenseman Victor Hedman, who took leave from the team for personal reasons last month, and the overall health of the Lightning lineup is a concern -- although Montreal has its own injury concerns with defenseman Noah Dobson. But for the reasons stated above, and their advantage in goal with Andrei Vasilevskiy, the Lightning power through a Canadiens team that's probably one year and a couple of players away from real Cup contention.
Sometimes you hear things during a season that stick with you. Like when one NHL team executive told me the team they wanted to avoid in the playoffs would be the Senators, whose underlying numbers reveal an extremely difficult team to play against if their play was supported by quality goaltending.
They got enough of it to make the playoff cut, as Linus Ullmark went 12-4-3 with a .902 save percentage since the Olympic break. But the issue I had with Ottawa casting its lot with Ullmark as a franchise goalie was his postseason numbers, which are a horror show: .885 save percentage and a 3.28 goals-against average in 16 games. Last season, in six games for Ottawa, he had a .880 save percentage.
Look, goalies with bad playoff numbers can finally find their games and great success -- looking at you, Marc-Andre Fleury. But I can't trust it enough with Ullmark to put Ottawa over Carolina, although more than a few people do.
These teams play a similar style and are fairly well matched. They both have a balanced scoring attack. They both have outstanding defensive forwards, with Shane Pinto and Michael Amadio vs. the likes of Jordan Staal. Both teams have some offensive pop from the blue line, although I'm a little concerned about the health status of Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot for Ottawa. And they both have their questions in goal: For Carolina, it's "who's starting Game 1?" between single-season sensation Brandon Bussi and playoff veteran Frederik Andersen.
You know what coach Rod Brind'Amour does best, besides embarrassing his players in the weight room? Winning in the opening round of the playoffs. His teams have never lost an opening-round series, counting their qualifying round win against the Rangers in the 2020 COVID postseason. That streak won't stop here, despite the Senators' best efforts.
The Penguins are one of the NHL's top offensive powers this season under first-year coach Dan Muse, finishing third in the NHL in goals per game (3.54). They like to pass the puck. The Flyers are one of the NHL's stingiest defensive teams, with especially impressive underlying numbers under first-year coach Rick Tocchet. They like to prevent you from passing the puck.
The Penguins are third in the NHL at inner slot shots at 5-on-5 (11.6 per 60 minutes). The Flyers are third best at preventing them (8.5 per 60). The Penguins are fourth in expected goals (2.9 per 60). The Flyers are third in expected goals against (2.4). To use the old wrestling cliché, it's the irresistible force vs. the immovable object.
Look, getting Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin back into the playoffs is a delight. We've missed you. You make things much more interesting. And so one becomes compelled to rubber-stamp a series win against the Flyers, who seem like the inferior team on paper. But I'm swerving here. I like the Flyers.
Defense wins championships, and Philadelphia is easily the superior defensive team in this series. That includes goaltending, where Dan Vladar (13.8 goals saved above expected) ended up on my Hart Trophy ballot for fixing the most glaring weakness on this roster. Meanwhile, the Penguins have Stuart Skinner and Arturs Silovs in goal, whose postseason experiences could put most roller coasters to shame.