The game within the game of the NFL draft is forecasting how it will unfold. Teams build internal models to help figure out when they need to pick a player and how far forward -- or back -- they can trade. For us, it means using ESPN's Draft Day Predictor to figure out the fuller draft picture before it plays out -- and of course, to power our mock draft simulator.

But what is the Draft Day Predictor? It's a model that uses expert mock drafts, Scouts Inc. grades and team needs to predict the full range of selection outcomes for top prospects. The accuracy of those measures in past drafts informs the model's outputs for this upcoming draft. The model updates throughout the draft process as mock drafts and grades are updated. It also updates live during the draft as the picks come in -- which means if a player starts to fall, users can see how likely he is to reach their team.

So let's probabilistically break down some storylines ahead of this year's NFL draft using the Draft Day Predictor's latest values. Will Ohio State really have four players drafted in the top 10? How far up will the Cowboys have to move to get a premier defender? And where will consensus No. 2 quarterback Ty Simpson be selected? We get into all of that, plus an analytical look at 40-yard dash times vs. play speed and what it means for this class of receivers.

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Yes, it's possible. The Draft Day Predictor says Simpson has a 43% chance to be available at pick No. 33, the start of the second round. If the Alabama quarterback were to be selected Thursday, the most likely spots are at Nos. 16 (currently the Jets), 21 (Steelers) and 24 (Browns), though he could go at any pick as the result of a trade.

If he lasts until Day 2, pick Nos. 33 and 34 (Jets and Cardinals, respectively) are possibilities. The predictor believes there is a 91% chance Simpson is off the board before 7No. 50.

Love has a 45% chance to be selected at No. 4 (by the Titans or whichever team trades into that spot). That is a very strong number for any player to go at an individual pick, but it also means there's a better chance the Notre Dame running back will not be picked at No. 4.

So where would Love go if not at No. 4? Well, there's a real chance he's already off the board at that point, with a 21% chance he's picked before then. That echoes a report from ESPN's Adam Schefter on Monday that Love is in play for the Cardinals at No. 3. If he makes it past Nos. 3 and No. 4, then he would be a major candidate to go at No. 5. The predictor currently gives Love a 24% chance to be selected at No. 5 (currently the Giants), which is his second-most-likely landing spot.

There's a sense the Cowboys could move up in the first round for a premium defender as they chase the ghost of Micah Parsons. In fact, that's what Mel Kiper Jr. had them doing in his latest mock draft. If Dallas is targeting the Ohio State standouts, how far does it need to trade up?

Right now, Styles is most likely to be selected at No. 5 -- currently the Giants' pick. The predictor thinks there's a 90% chance that the star linebacker will make it to that spot, so the Giants could be a potential trade partner, but that would require the Cowboys making an in-division deal and would mean New York would have to be willing to let Styles go elsewhere.

Given those ifs, the Cowboys might have to go all the way up to the Titans at No. 4 to virtually guarantee they could land Styles. Of course, Dallas could roll the dice and wait -- Styles has a 43% chance to last until the Saints at No. 8, for example -- but that strategy comes with no promises.

Downs would require a similar trade. There's a 92% chance he's on the board at No. 5, but the OSU safety is a candidate to be taken by the Giants there, too. His most likely landing spot is No. 6 (currently the Browns), with a 27% chance he's selected at that spot. Cleveland or Washington (No. 7) could be logical trade partners for Dallas, though the Commanders have the same intradivision trade concerns the Giants do.

Dallas probably can't wait longer than that because Downs has a more concentrated range of outcomes than Styles and has only a 24% chance to still be available at No. 8.

play1:48Stephen A. and Mel Kiper Jr. like Sonny Styles to the Cowboys

Stephen A. Smith and Mel Kiper Jr. discuss how the Cowboys can maneuver to select Sonny Styles in the NFL draft.

The Buckeyes are chasing history in this draft, with a chance to have four players -- linebacker Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles, Caleb Downs and wide receiver Carnell Tate -- selected in the top 10. If they can pull it off, it would be only the second time in the common draft era that a school had four top-10 players selected in the same draft (Michigan State, 1967).

And Ohio State has a very good chance to do it. According to the Draft Day Predictor, there is a 76% chance the Buckeyes pull it off. In fact, there's a 31% chance they have four players selected in the top eight.

In light of Monday's news from Adam Schefter that Brown will likely be traded to the Patriots after June 1, the Eagles' first-round pick (No. 23) could easily be used on a wide receiver. But who will be available? The good news, according to the Draft Day Predictor, is that there is a 96% chance that at least one of Omar Cooper Jr. (Indiana), KC Concepcion (Texas A&M) or Denzel Boston (Washington) is on the board at that point.

In fact, that's so likely that the Eagles could probably afford to trade back and land one of those receivers. There is a 60% chance that at least one of them is available at No. 32.

That said, the Eagles would likely have to trade up if they want one of the higher-ranked wide receivers -- Carnell Tate, Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State) or Makai Lemon (USC).

play2:00Schefter: A.J. Brown likely to be traded to the Patriots post-June 1

Adam Schefter reports that the Eagles are likely to deal A.J. Brown to the Patriots after June 1.

Addressing tackle early would be a logical move for Cleveland, and the Browns have multiple first-round picks to work with. But if they want one of Francis Mauigoa (Miami), Monroe Freeling (Georgia), Kadyn Proctor (Alabama) or Spencer Fano (Utah), then No. 24 is likely too late. There is only a 9% chance any of those four players slips to No. 24.

That doesn't mean they can't take a tackle at that spot, but they might have to jump down a tier. Caleb Lomu (Utah) has a 76% chance to be available at 24 and Blake Miller (Clemson) is at 78%. Arizona State's Max Iheanachor (99%) would almost certainly be on the board, too.

The alternative could be for the Browns to take a tackle with their first pick and try to land a wide receiver at No. 24. But that comes with a similar dilemma, like we detailed above with the Eagles -- the top-tier wideouts will be gone by then. But the Browns should have a choice between Cooper, Concepcion and Boston if they want.

The answer is probably both. If the Chiefs want to take the top cornerback in the draft, they are well positioned to do that at No. 9. That player is likely LSU's Mansoor Delane, who has a 79% chance to still be available, with Tennessee's Jermod McCoy (98%) almost certain to be on the board, too.

If the Chiefs wait, they'll be looking at a different caliber of player, but there should be several to choose from at No. 29. At least a couple of Tennessee's Colton Hood (64% chance to be available), Clemson's Avieon Terrell (77%), San Diego State's Chris Johnson (77%) or South Carolina's Brandon Cisse (93%) could be options. That kind of flexibility means Kansas City could look at other positions at No. 9.