To help sort out which players might step up and make this postseason their own, let's consult the Goals Above Replacement (GAR) rankings -- my version of "all-in-one" metrics like Hockey-Reference's Point Shares. The core philosophy of GAR is to quantify a player's total contribution (across offense, defense and goaltending) relative to a replacement-level player at the same position. To ensure the metric reflects reality, it also balances total leaguewide value by position: 60% for forwards, 30% for defensemen and 10% for goaltenders.

This year's GAR leader was, unsurprisingly, Colorado's Nathan MacKinnon. But not every player played exactly to their talent level the way he did this season. To account for a longer view of performance track records, I'm ranking players according to their Established Level -- a weighted three-year average inspired by Bill James. (Specifically, we assign a weight of 3 to 2025-26, 2 to 2024-25 and 1 to 2023-24, then divide by 6 to get each player's overall average.) This gives more credit to recent dominance while also rewarding sustained excellence over time. To prevent the metric from lagging behind the league's newest stars, we also apply a value floor: no player's Established Level can be lower than 75% of their 2025-26 GAR.

With all of that housekeeping out of the way, here's our ranking of the skaters and goaltenders in the 2026 playoff field who are most capable of defining the next two months of hockey:

GAR: 2025-26: 32.0 | 2024-25: 24.2 | 2023-24: 31.0
Three-year avg.: O: 23.0 | D: 6.3 | G: 0.0 | Total: 29.2

MacKinnon is the favorite to win his second Hart Trophy in three years, though the real prize he and the Avalanche have in mind is the Stanley Cup, having won it in 2022. After the best season of his career by GAR, he'll have as good a chance to lead that run as ever.

When MacKinnon is on his game, almost nobody can match his combination of speed and skill; he even returned to his previous levels as a sniper in 2025-26 (career-high 53 Adjusted Goals) after a comparatively down goal-scoring effort a year ago.

Playoff outlook: The Avs are favored to win the Cup, whether we look at the stats or the betting market, and MacKinnon is a huge reason why. He's averaged a point per game or better every trip he's made to the playoffs, and the Avs will be heavily picked to win in Round 1, if not each subsequent series. Another date with Dallas -- always scary -- or Minnesota may loom in Round 2, but Colorado has the firepower to survive. At age 30, MacKinnon is at his peak and the time for another Cup is now.

GAR: 2025-26: 30.2 | 2024-25: 25.9 | 2023-24: 29.9
Three-year avg.: O: 23.8 | D: 4.9 | G: 0.0 | Total: 28.7

Kucherov is an automatic Art Ross Trophy threat whenever healthy, and he almost hunted down Connor McDavid with an incredible 79 points in 41 games since Jan. 1. This season was tied for his second-best single-season mark in Adjusted Goals (43) -- even if it was propped up by a career-high 19% shooting percentage -- and he maintained his unmatched passing ability as well, leading the league in assists for a third straight season. Offensively, there is little Kucherov can't do.

Playoff outlook: The Bolts will face a talented Montreal squad right away in the East bracket, but Kucherov should get plenty of his own numbers against a Habs defense that ranked 16th in goals allowed and 18th on the penalty kill. With Buffalo or Boston lurking next, Tampa Bay may not face a top-10 defense until the conference finals, if they make it that far.

GAR: 2025-26: 29.7 | 2024-25: 20.2 | 2023-24: 27.4
Three-year avg.: O: 21.4 | D: 4.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 26.2

Healthy for an entire season for the first time since 2022-23, McDavid returned to Victory Lane in the NHL's scoring race with 134 points. (He either scored or assisted on 49% of Edmonton's goals this season.) With his combination of speed, scoring ability and vision, McDavid is the long-running gold standard that even talents like MacKinnon and Kucherov measure themselves against.

Playoff outlook: The Oilers are in a bit of a different position than usual, not being favored to win the West despite having done so in each of the past two NHL seasons. That being said, McDavid has piled up basically a full season's worth of points -- 33 goals and 128 points in 75 games --- over the past four postseasons, so it would be silly to count out his ability to carry Edmonton in spite of their No. 26 ranking in goal prevention.

GAR: 2025-26: 22.9 | 2024-25: 30.1 | 2023-24: 22.9
Three-year avg.: O: 17.6 | D: 7.7 | G: 0.0 | Total: 25.3

Even though he probably won't win a second straight Norris Trophy (Columbus' Zach Werenski is highly favored) -- and his value numbers regressed exactly to what they were before last year's career-best 30.1 GAR -- Makar continues to be the league's most dynamic offensive defenseman from both a skating and a production standpoint.

The only area where Makar's numbers slipped was in Colorado's possession rate when he was on the ice; the team's share of shot attempts at 5-on-5 was 3.7% lower with Makar in the game versus not.

Playoff outlook: Makar has a Conn Smythe on his resume from that 2022 Cup run, but he's also averaged less than a point per game in two of his past three playoff campaigns. So he's in need of a good postseason, particularly considering Colorado's title aspirations. Up against the Kings in Round 1, Makar's comparison point will be an opposing blue line that ranked just 22nd in GAR and produced very little on offense.

GAR: 2025-26: 27.0 | 2024-25: 19.4 | 2023-24: 24.1
Three-year avg.: O: 15.9 | D: 8.1 | G: 0.0 | Total: 24.0

Bouchard leveled up this season from an elite offensive D-man for the current era to have one of the most productive seasons we've ever seen from the back line. His 90 Adjusted Points were just behind Brian Leetch in 1991-92 for the top-20 ever by a defenseman in a single season, and he narrowly trailed Erik Karlsson, Roman Josi and Makar for the most since Paul Coffey in the mid-'90s.

And for any complaints about Bouchard's all-around game, contrast his effect on the Oilers' puck possession against Makar's number earlier: Edmonton's share of shots at 5-on-5 was 7.8% better with Bouchard on the ice.

Playoff outlook: Like McDavid, Bouchard has been insanely productive in recent postseasons, with 17 goals and 72 points in 59 games over the past three playoffs. Edmonton will be reliant on his booming shot and elite quarterbacking ability to keep their top-ranked power play rolling.

GAR: 2025-26: 21.7 | 2024-25: 27.1 | 2023-24: 23.3
Three-year avg.: O: 19.3 | D: 4.5 | G: 0.0 | Total: 23.7

Rounding out the three-headed monster that powered Edmonton's sixth-ranked offense, Draisaitl missed out on an eighth consecutive season with 100 or more Adjusted Points because of injuries that cost him 17 games -- including the final month of the regular season.

If healthy, Draisaitl is an offensive machine who commands outsized defensive attention because of his quick release and ability to shoot or pass from both the forehand and backhand. With a +5.3% on-ice shot attempt share differential, he continued to drive play at a higher rate than earlier in his career.

Playoff outlook: The biggest postseason question mark for Draisaitl is how soon he can return from his lower-body injury. With apologies to Zach Hyman (who had 9.5 offensive GAR), the Oilers are so dependent on their top trio of McDavid, Bouchard and Draisaitl -- who combined to generate 61.7 of the team's 88.2 offensive GAR -- that any interruption in availability could disrupt the offense (and PP) that must carry their hopes for a third straight West crown.