A year after fending off a massive Indian air assault with the help of Chinese warplanes and missiles, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) on Thursday unveiled plans to upgrade its fleet through further acquisitions of Chengdu J-10C fighters and substantial upgrades to the JF-17s co-produced by the two allies.
The PAF further confirmed that it has signed an “initial collaborative agreement” for the acquisition of fifth-generation Sheyang J-35 stealth fighter, without disclosing any details about the scope of the deal.
Speculation is rife that Pakistan could take the delivery of an initial batch of J-35s by the end of this year, following the airing of a video by CCTV last week showing the first fully operational export version of the warplane. As the only overseas customer to date, the PAF is the obvious destination.
According to analysts, the PAF’s induction of Chinese fifth-generation warplanes into service would alter the balance of air power with India, which has a much larger fleet of 4.5-generation fighters bought from France and Russia but is lagging behind Pakistan in the acquisition of stealth warplanes.
The J-35s would also boost the PAF’s ability to project military power into the Persian Gulf. Pakistan last month deployed a squadron of fighters – including JF-17s – to Saudi Arabia under a mutual defence pact signed last September.
At a press conference in Islamabad, PAF deputy chief of air staff Air Vice-Marshal Tariq Ghazi said “foundations have been laid for the acquisition of advanced capabilities” – including long-range precision weapons (LRPW), next-generation platforms, “additional” J-10C aircraft, and “much upgraded” JF-17s.
LRPW include advanced ballistic and cruise missile systems capable of delivering substantial explosive payloads from a significant distance – typically 500km (310 miles) to 2,000km – with a high degree of accuracy.
Pakistan tested its indigenously produced 750km-range Fatah-4 ground-launched cruise missile earlier this month, along with an upgraded 400km-range version of the Fatah-2 multiple-launch rocket system.
It also tested the 120km-range Baber-3 submarine-launched cruise missile, which will arm the eight Chinese Type-039B Yuan-class submarines being acquired under a transfer-of-technology deal that will see four built in Karachi. The first of these “Hangor-class” export versions was commissioned by the Pakistan Navy on April 30.
Step in right direction
The next-generation platforms mentioned by Ghazi include emerging technologies like hypersonic boost-guide vehicles.
The JF-17 upgrades were a “stepping stone” in the PAF’s long-term pursuit of fifth-generation fighter capabilities, he said.
Pakistan is also considering “some collaborations” to allow its state-owned defence industry to build its capabilities from the current 4.5-generation JF-17s.
“From this, step by step, out of all these options, I assure you the option will be with us before the requirement arises,” Ghazi said.
The PAF joined Turkey’s Kaan fifth-generation fighter project shortly before its brief air war with India in May last year.
Islamabad subsequently disclosed in June that Beijing had offered 40 J-35 warplanes, KJ-500 early-warning aircraft and the HQ-19 surface-to-air missile weapon systems.
Neither side had officially confirmed the J-35 deal until the PAF’s confirmation on Thursday.
According to Amalendu Misra, professor of international politics at UK’s Lancaster University, the technology transfer would “massively strengthen” the China-Pakistan all-weather friendship, but would be of “deep concern” to India.
“It is likely to lead to a much more [intense] arms race in the South Asian region,” Misra said.
New Delhi has chosen to focus exclusively on locally developing the AMCA stealth fighter instead of buying American F-35s or Russian Sukhoi Su-57s as a first step.
India had been “vastly upgrading its air power through bulk purchases” of French Dassault Rafale fighter jets in recent years, quickly expanding its numerical advantage over the PAF in terms of 4.5-generation warplanes, Misra said, although Delhi sees Beijing as its primary adversary.
Chinese fifth-generation stealth fighters would give the PAF a “strategic edge” over India, he said.
‘Dangerous adversary’
In operational terms, the acquisition would “certainly make the PAF a more dangerous adversary than it already is”, said Vijainder Thakur, a retired Indian Air Force (IAF) squadron leader and fighter pilot.
Even the two-to-three J-35 squadrons offered to Pakistan “could significantly dent India’s numerical advantage in fighters”, because it would force the IAF to commit a larger number of its Russian Su-30MKI fleet for air defence.
Because stealth fighters like the J-35 are designed to evade ground-based radars, opposing air forces have to rely on airborne radars mounted on fighters and early-warning aircraft. “The IAF will be forced to use a significant part of its Su-30MKI fleet for J-35 detection,” Thakur said.
Beijing’s decision to supply J-35s would have come from the top, said Muhammad Faisal, a South Asia security researcher at the University of Technology Sydney.
China had finalised its deal to supply Pakistan with 36 J-10Cs only after India had taken deliveries of Rafale jets from France in 2021.
“To address air power asymmetry, China gave the go-ahead,” Faisal said, adding that Pakistan’s prospective acquisition of J-35s “haven’t reached that stage of urgency so far because India hasn’t yet acquired” fifth-generation fighters.
With India’s sought-after strategic armed autonomy through indigenous defence development “still miles off the target”, Pakistan’s procurements of Chinese fifth-generation fighters “may force India to build a new squadron or two consisting of Russian Su-57s”, Misra said.
Similarly, he expected Islamabad to proceed cautiously because the “new bonhomie between Pakistan and the United States is not a given”.
“By over-relying on Beijing to upgrade its arsenals, Islamabad risks gaining the wrath of Washington,” Misra warned.
The operational life of Pakistan’s 20- to 40-year-old US F-16s is to be extended up to 2040, under an upgrade contract approved by Washington on May 1 – the day the first J-35 export variant was rolled out.